Borodiy S.A., Nikonorova V.A.

Simulation-dynamic model for the prediction of phytometric parameters of generative shoot of the gout vulgaris (Aegopodium podagraria L.) in a wild coenopopulation

The subject of the study was wild coenopopulations of gout vulgaris (Aegopodium podagraria L.) in the Kostroma and Moscow regions. The aim is to develop a simulation-dynamic model of the seasonal forecast of phytometric parameters of the generative shoot of the gout vulgaris (Aegopodium podagraria L.) in wild coenopopulations for the Kostroma region. The research was carried out in 2020...2021. As a result of the research, a simulation-dynamic growth model of the dynamics of phytometric indicators of the generative shoot of the gout vulgaris has been developed, providing the accuracy of the seasonal forecast in the range: shoot height  89.4...99.5%; aboveground active phytomass  90.8...99.3%; mass of leaf blades  78.45...91.13%; the sum of the mass of leaf petioles and flowering stem  93.45...99.67%; flower weight  60.93...86.16%; fruit weight  72.66...88.57%. The high accuracy of the model, calculated based on empirical data from 2020 obtained in the Kostroma region and verified in 2021 for the Kostroma and Moscow regions, allows us to recommend it for predicting the yield of wild coenopopulations 60...80 days before the start of harvesting medicinal raw materials in industrial volumes.

Keywords: GOUT VULGARIS, AEGOPODIUM PODAGRARIA L., SHOOT PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY FORECAST, MATHEMATICAL MODEL, SIMULATION-DYNAMIC MODEL