Borodiy S.A.

Simulation-dynamic model for the prediction of phytometric parameters of the escape of the common mother and stepmother (Tussilago farfara L.) in wild coenopopulation

The subject of the study is a wild coenopopulation of the common mother and stepmother (Tussilago farfara L.) in the Kostroma region. The aim of the research is to develop a simulation-dynamic model of the seasonal forecast of phytometric parameters of the escape of the common mother and stepmother (Tussilago farfara L.) in wild coenopopulations for the Kostroma region. The studies were carried out in the period 1995...2021 (distribution area in the Kostroma region) and 2016...2017, 2020. (collecting field information and developing a forecast model). As a result, it was found that the mother-and-stepmother grows mainly in settlements, along roadsides, landfills of solid household and industrial waste, soil landslides along river banks and ravine slopes. The plant is an indicator of the presence of anthropogenic influence on natural phytocenoses. The conducted research provided an opportunity to develop a simulation-dynamic model for predicting phytometric parameters of the common mother-and-stepmother shoot, the verification of which showed the accuracy of the work: ground active phytomass -90.20...98.73%; leaf mass - 94.30...98.55%; the mass of petioles of leaves and stems is 98.52%; the mass of inflorescences is 95.14%; the mass of seeds is 81.95%. The model is recommended to be used to predict the yield of medicinal raw materials in wild coenopopulations 30...35 days before the start of industrial harvesting.

Keywords: COMMON MOTHER-AND-STEPMOTHER, TUSSILAGO FARFARA L., ESCAPE PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY FORECAST, MATHEMATICAL MODEL, SIMULATION-DYNAMIC MODEL