Borodiy S.A.

Mathematical model for forecasting the phenological development phases of the common mother-and-stepmother (Tussilago farfara L.) in wild coenopopulation

The subject of the study is the wild coenopopulation of the common mother and stepmother (Tussilago farfara L.). The purpose of the research is to develop a mathematical model of the seasonal forecast of the phenological phases of the development of the common mother and stepmother in the wild coenopopulation. The studies were carried out in Kostroma (2016...2017) and Krasnoselsky (2020) districts of the Kostroma region in wild cenopopulations. As a result of the research, a mathematical model of the seasonal forecast of the dynamics of the phenological phases of the development of common mother-and-stepmother plants (Tussilago farfara L.) for a wild cenopopulation has been developed, working with an accuracy of 82.73...97.25% depending on the phase of development, which provides the possibility of an early forecast of the period of collection of medicinal raw materials and the route of the teams of collectors on the territory of the Kostroma region with an accuracy of 85.2...98.4%.

Keywords: MEDICINAL PLANTS, COMMON MOTHER AND STEPMOTHER, TUSSILAGO FARFARA L., FORECAST OF PHENOLOGICAL PHASES OF DEVELOPMENT, MATHEMATICAL MODEL