Borodiy S.A., Kuzmicheva K.S.

Verification of a mathematical model for predicting the phytometric parameters of the generative shoot of common wormwood (Artemisia vulgaris l.) in a wild coenopopulation

The subject of the study is the wild coenopopulation of common wormwood (Artemisia vulgaris L.). The aim of the research is to verify the mathematical model of the seasonal forecast of the phytometric parameters of the generative shoot of common wormwood in the wild coenopopulation of the Galich district of the Kostroma region. The forecast model is developed on the basis of experimental data of 2016 ... 2017, obtained in the Kostroma district of the Kostroma region. For verification, independent data from 2020 of the Galichsky district of the Kostroma region were used. As a result, it was found that the error in predicting the calendar timing of the onset of the phenological phases of plant development did not exceed seven days, which is acceptable for planning the route of the teams of pickers on the territory of the Kostroma region. The accuracy of the forecast of phytometric parameters (shoot height — 97.5%; aboveground active phytomass — 89.6%; leaf weight — 90.3%; stem weight — 91.0%) determined the applicability of the model for the forecast of stocks.

Keywords:COMMON WORMWOOD, ARTEMISIA VULGARIS L., GENERATIVE SHOOT PRODUCTIVITY, FORECAST OF DEVELOPMENT PHASES, MATHEMATICAL MODEL